中(zhong)国大电煤企业采购价格多少(shao)系数（CECI）编制数办工(gong)室(shi)发布(bu)信息的(de)《CECI平(ping)均(jun)(jun)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)式(shi)(shi)解析周报》（2025年第221期(qi)(qi)）提示，CECI沿海地(di)区平(ping)均(jun)(jun)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)式(shi)(shi)中高温值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)煤种(zhong)现货交易黄(huang)(huang)金成(cheng)交额(e)量价小范(fan)围减少。曹(cao)妃甸平(ping)均(jun)(jun)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)式(shi)(shi)小范(fan)围下进行(xing)速(su)度。原产平(ping)均(jun)(jun)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)式(shi)(shi)高温值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)煤种(zhong)现货交易黄(huang)(huang)金成(cheng)交额(e)量价再下进行(xing)速(su)度。CECI企业(ye)采购副(fu)总人(ren)平(ping)均(jun)(jun)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)式(shi)(shi)维(wei)持国庆期(qi)(qi)长(zhang)期(qi)(qi)处在(zai)伸缩区域，分项工(gong)程平(ping)均(jun)(jun)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)式(shi)(shi)中，除港口(kou)物流分平(ping)均(jun)(jun)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)式(shi)(shi)长(zhang)期(qi)(qi)处在(zai)扭转(zhuan)区域外，别分平(ping)均(jun)(jun)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)式(shi)(shi)均(jun)(jun)长(zhang)期(qi)(qi)处在(zai)伸缩区域，除货存分平(ping)均(jun)(jun)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)式(shi)(shi)同(tong)比(bi)环比(bi)同(tong)比(bi)持续增长(zhang)外，别分平(ping)均(jun)(jun)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)式(shi)(shi)均(jun)(jun)同(tong)比(bi)环比(bi)同(tong)比(bi)减少。

一、市场情况综述

然(ran)煤锅(guo)炉(lu)水变(bian)电(dian)所(suo)生(sheng)产(chan)制(zhi)造个方面，国内大(da)(da)有些国家(jia)气候(hou)再(zai)次变(bian)暖，冀中区(qu)等地域(yu)当地居(ju)民聚集(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)集(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)中供(gong)暖即将中断(duan)，大(da)(da)部分然(ran)煤锅(guo)炉(lu)水变(bian)电(dian)所(suo)发(fa)(fa)(fa)储(chu)储(chu)电(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)、集(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)中供(gong)暖量(liang)(liang)(liang)、电(dian)煤日(ri)(ri)耗和入厂(chang)煤量(liang)(liang)(liang)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)均维持(chi)走低(di)。水变(bian)电(dian)所(suo)库存盘点除(chu)北方地域(yu)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)走低(di)外，冀中区(qu)、西北、南方地区(qu)等地域(yu)水变(bian)电(dian)所(suo)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)均各不相同(tong)(tong)情况上升时。只能根据中电(dian)联(lian)生(sheng)物(wu)锅(guo)炉(lu)燃(ran)料(liao)计(ji)(ji)算(suan)(suan)资(zi)(zi)料(liao)计(ji)(ji)算(suan)(suan)分析计(ji)(ji)算(suan)(suan)资(zi)(zi)料(liao)，每期(qi)(qi)融入 供(gong)电(dian)的行业生(sheng)物(wu)锅(guo)炉(lu)燃(ran)料(liao)计(ji)(ji)算(suan)(suan)资(zi)(zi)料(liao)计(ji)(ji)算(suan)(suan)分析的火力发(fa)(fa)(fa)电(dian)投资(zi)(zi)集(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)团(tuan)然(ran)煤锅(guo)炉(lu)水变(bian)电(dian)所(suo)单日(ri)(ri)发(fa)(fa)(fa)储(chu)储(chu)电(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)极(ji)大(da)(da)可(ke)以(yi)减(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)小5.8%，去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)极(ji)大(da)(da)可(ke)以(yi)减(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)小4.1%。单日(ri)(ri)集(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)中供(gong)暖量(liang)(liang)(liang)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)极(ji)大(da)(da)可(ke)以(yi)减(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)小16.6%，去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)发(fa)(fa)(fa)展20.3%。单日(ri)(ri)电(dian)煤耗量(liang)(liang)(liang)极(ji)大(da)(da)可(ke)以(yi)减(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)小6.2%，去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)极(ji)大(da)(da)可(ke)以(yi)减(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)小3.2%。在其中，海路搬家(jia)水变(bian)电(dian)所(suo)单日(ri)(ri)耗煤量(liang)(liang)(liang)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)极(ji)大(da)(da)可(ke)以(yi)减(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)小6.3%，去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)极(ji)大(da)(da)可(ke)以(yi)减(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)小9.3%；单日(ri)(ri)入厂(chang)煤量(liang)(liang)(liang)极(ji)大(da)(da)可(ke)以(yi)减(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)小3.3%，去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)极(ji)大(da)(da)可(ke)以(yi)减(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)小9.6%。然(ran)煤锅(guo)炉(lu)水变(bian)电(dian)所(suo)存煤9951万吨，去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)发(fa)(fa)(fa)展450万吨。

境内原煤(mei)(mei)(mei)主产(chan)区问题，大(da)(da)位置煤(mei)(mei)(mei)矿(kuang)业(ye)业(ye)业(ye)做到正常(chang)的(de)生產，集(ji)体(ti)所有制(zhi)土(tu)地煤(mei)(mei)(mei)矿(kuang)业(ye)业(ye)业(ye)发运以保供(gong)及里(li)面的(de)现(xian)货(huo)(huo)平台生产(chan)商(shang)为核(he)心，少(shao)数(shu)民营公司煤(mei)(mei)(mei)矿(kuang)业(ye)业(ye)业(ye)自主绝产(chan)，整体(ti)风格原煤(mei)(mei)(mei)现(xian)货(huo)(huo)平台生产(chan)商(shang)大(da)(da)幅(fu)度动荡。近几年煤(mei)(mei)(mei)电(dian)的(de)企业(ye)存储仍高出2019例(li)数(shu)，非电(dian)制(zhi)造业(ye)仅做到极(ji)少(shao)量购(gou)房者采购(gou)招标，出站口和(he)集(ji)体(ti)所有制(zhi)土(tu)地团(tuan)体(ti)购(gou)进(jin)价值再次调低，进(jin)出口商(shang)和(he)茶叶市场(chang)的(de)陆续(xu)参加的(de)人(ren)观看消极(ji)情绪较(jiao)浓，茶叶市场(chang)的(de)合作(zuo)团(tuan)队氛围(wei)与众不(bu)同，现(xian)货(huo)(huo)平台价值持续(xu)不(bu)断(duan)大(da)(da)幅(fu)度上升。

码头股票市(shi)场中几个方面(mian)，受跌(die)路物流运费(fei)优惠一些、成都(dou)气温(wen)上升(sheng)、汽(qi)轮(lun)机检修(xiu)保(bao)养等众(zhong)多(duo)重要(yao)因素(su)反应，调成量(liang)建筑体(ti)稍低(di)于调出量(liang)，码头库存管理上风之间上下(xia)电(dian)脑运行。在现货交易(yi)(yi)股票市(shi)场中价值多(duo)方位跌(die)穿本(ben)年度长协价的症状下(xia)，绝(jue)大(da)部分貿(mao)易(yi)(yi)商对明(ming)天股市(shi)看(kan)空芯态较弱(ruo)，最新报价持续性(xing)大幅度下(xia)降(jiang)，部分最终行(xing)业询货积极(ji)主动性(xing)加快，但(dan)仍以低价位采购员来源于，实计开盘(pan)量(liang)应该，期货开盘(pan)报价大幅度选股。

综上看看，东北(bei)地区供热(re)季(ji)通常终(zhong)结，电(dian)(dian)煤(mei)(mei)诉求转淡，烧(shao)煤(mei)(mei)火电(dian)(dian)站电(dian)(dian)煤(mei)(mei)日耗同比(bi)增长率廷续(xu)下行(xing)带(dai)宽。电(dian)(dian)煤(mei)(mei)需求相对而(er)言宽裕，中中下游交易(yi)量压为很高，销售专(zhuan)业市(shi)场煤(mei)(mei)实际(ji)上的(de)卖出(chu)量大部分，坑口和集装箱码(ma)头销售专(zhuan)业市(shi)场煤(mei)(mei)价仍(reng)提高被动(dong)型(xing)执行(xing)。

二、CECI指数分析

CECI沿海指数5500千卡/千克、5000千卡/千克现货成交价较上期分别下降4元/吨、1元/吨。从样本情况看，5500千卡/千克、5000千卡/千克规格品现货成交价样本价格区间分别为682-687元/吨、601-604元/吨，且从成交时间看，多分布在本周前半段。从样本热值分布看，4500千卡/千克、5000千卡/千克、5500千卡/千克样本在总量中占比分别为30.7％、48.3％、21.1％。

图3  CECI沿海指数综合价走势图

CECI曹妃甸指数5500千卡/千克、5000千卡/千克和4500千卡/千克平均价格分别为686.4元/吨、597.6元/吨和519.8元/吨，电煤现货价格小幅下行，各规格品本周价格平均值比上周分别下降6.6元/吨、5.6元/吨和4.4元/吨。现货交易平均数量有所减少，其中5500千卡/千克、5000千卡/千克数量略有减少，4500千卡/千克样本数量基本持平。

图4  CECI曹妃甸指数走势图

CECI进口指数到岸标煤单价860元/吨，较上期持平。现货价格中，各规格品热值进口煤现货价格涨跌不一，其中太仓港（灵便型）3200千卡/千克价格环比上涨6元/吨，广州港（巴拿马型）4600千卡/千克价格环比下降8元/吨。印尼HBA新政逐渐趋于稳定，但受斋月及雨季的影响，外矿对低热值煤种报价多数保持坚挺。国内沿海电厂继续释放远期5月份交货的招标采购，尤其华南地区电厂较集中的电力集团连续批量发布采购低热值印尼煤招标，整体投标价较上期小幅下降。近期进口煤市场对澳煤、俄罗斯煤询货略有增加，但仍以低价采购为主，进口高热值煤价格缺乏有力支撑，现货价格继续偏弱运行。

表1  CECI进口指数

CECI采购经理人指数连续11期处于收缩区间。其中，供给分指数连续11期处于收缩区间，表明电煤供给量继续下降，降幅有所扩大。需求分指数连续11期处于收缩区间，表明电煤需求量继续下降，降幅有所扩大。库存分指数连续11期处于收缩区间，表明电煤库存量继续下降，降幅有所收窄。价格分指数连续9期处于收缩区间，表明电煤价格继续下降，降幅有所扩大。航运分指数连续3期处于扩张区间，表明电煤航运价格继续增加，增幅有所收窄。

表2  CECI采购经理人指数

三、相关信息和建议

基于浙江省人民政府物料保通保畅(chang)的(de)工作(zuo)领导班子(zi)组(zu)办(ban)公(gong)楼(lou)室监测器一览统计数据，5月(yue)10日-5月(yue)16日，在国(guo)(guo)内的(de)商品配(pei)送物料秩序(xu)运(yun)营，在当中：国(guo)(guo)家(jia)地(di)区铁路(lu)配(pei)送加权平(ping)均(jun)配(pei)送商品7833.2万吨左右，提高增长(zhang)额额1.98%；在国(guo)(guo)内的(de)高速高速路(lu)网(wang)高速路(lu)网(wang)加权平(ping)均(jun)小货车流(liu)行(xing)5247.2万辆(liang)，提高增长(zhang)额额3.45%。

按照祖(zu)国核(he)算(suan)局数据报告，2025年(nian)(nian)1-7月份，各省煤炭(tan)时产7653三万吨，比上升7.7%，同(tong)期(qi)相比增长(zhang)比本(ben)年(nian)(nian)17月份促进3.8个同(tong)期(qi)相比；规上实业发电容量14925000万kW时，比回(hui)落1.3%。

要(yao)根(gen)据国家的能源系统局的数据，2025年1-5月份，全(quan)市场经济用(yong)水量累积15564亿kw时，比(bi)持续(xu)增(zeng)速(su)1.3%。从分企业(ye)用(yong)水看(kan)，第(di)一名、二、三企业(ye)和县域住人(ren)衣食住行用(yong)水量区分比(bi)持续(xu)增(zeng)速(su)8.2%、0.9%、3.6%和0.1%。

基于中电(dian)(dian)(dian)联电(dian)(dian)(dian)力公司(si)这个行业锅炉燃料核算，截(jie)止期11月(yue)15日，列入核算的发(fa)充电(dian)(dian)(dian)集团网(wang)站(zhan)(zhan)燃气(qi)火(huo)电(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)上(shang)月(yue)累(lei)(lei)积(ji)发(fa)充电(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)电(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)月(yue)环(huan)(huan)比减(jian)(jian)退(tui)4%，年初累(lei)(lei)积(ji)发(fa)充电(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)电(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)月(yue)环(huan)(huan)比减(jian)(jian)退(tui)8%。燃气(qi)火(huo)电(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)耗煤量(liang)(liang)上(shang)月(yue)累(lei)(lei)积(ji)月(yue)环(huan)(huan)比减(jian)(jian)退(tui)4.1%，年初累(lei)(lei)积(ji)月(yue)环(huan)(huan)比减(jian)(jian)退(tui)7%。燃气(qi)火(huo)电(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)山西煤炭货存(cun)远远超出2019同一时间450万吨，货存(cun)可以使用日期较去年今年同一时间身高(gao)1.8天(tian)。

近期，全国多地陆续停止供暖，发电、供暖用煤进入淡季，转入检修的电厂机组开始增多，大部分沿海电厂机组负荷较低。非电企业复工及基建加快，非电耗煤量有所提升，但在长协煤供应及高库存支撑下，整体市场采购需求释放仍显不足。北方港调出量与调入量基本持平，港口去库速度依旧缓慢，其中秦皇岛港库存长时间保持在700万吨以上的高位水平，疏港压力较大。在坑口和港口库存双双高企压力之下，煤矿存在被动减产可能，同时，进口低卡煤价格倒挂也可能对内贸形成一定支撑。综合判断，短期动力煤市场价格将缓慢下跌继续探底。建议电力企业关注后期港口去库进度和水泥等非电煤需求释放情况，维持合理库存。

     

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