煤电同(tong)(tong)增驱动开(kai)(kai)门薪(xin)水(shui)解(jie)决，关注(zhu)新(xin)闻存储及(ji)新(xin)创建(jian)(jian)矿井，稳定“加持(chi)”企(qi)业评分。总部(bu)发布信息2023 年(nian)度报告及(ji)2024 年(nian)二(er)季报，2023 年(nian)总部(bu)建(jian)(jian)立开(kai)(kai)门薪(xin)水(shui)301.2 5亿，同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)相比(bi)(bi)涨(zhang)幅率(lv)(lv)-15.3%；建(jian)(jian)立归(gui)母纯(chun)(chun)净(jing)收(shou)(shou)益(yi)空(kong)(kong)间(jian)22.7 5亿，同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)相比(bi)(bi)涨(zhang)幅率(lv)(lv)+18.7%。各举2023Q4 建(jian)(jian)立开(kai)(kai)门薪(xin)水(shui)81.4 5亿，月环比(bi)(bi)涨(zhang)幅率(lv)(lv)+1.8%，建(jian)(jian)立归(gui)母纯(chun)(chun)净(jing)收(shou)(shou)益(yi)空(kong)(kong)间(jian)6.4 5亿，月环比(bi)(bi)涨(zhang)幅率(lv)(lv)+5.0%。2024Q1总部(bu)建(jian)(jian)立开(kai)(kai)门薪(xin)水(shui)73.2 5亿，同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)相比(bi)(bi)涨(zhang)幅率(lv)(lv)+3.6%，建(jian)(jian)立归(gui)母纯(chun)(chun)净(jing)收(shou)(shou)益(yi)空(kong)(kong)间(jian)4.7 5亿，同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)相比(bi)(bi)涨(zhang)幅率(lv)(lv)+11.4%。采取(qu)到2024 年(nian)此后贸(mao)易(yi)市场煤价下进行，各位上涨(zhang)2024-2025 年(nian)赢(ying)利(li)推(tui)(tui)测并(bing)合并(bing)2026 年(nian)赢(ying)利(li)推(tui)(tui)测，预期(qi)(qi)2024-2026 年(nian)建(jian)(jian)立归(gui)母纯(chun)(chun)净(jing)收(shou)(shou)益(yi)空(kong)(kong)间(jian)24.1/26.0/27.1 5亿（2024-2025 新(xin)年(nian)前数(shu)值(zhi)25.1/26.6 5亿），同(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)相比(bi)(bi)涨(zhang)幅率(lv)(lv)+6.4%/+8.0%/+4.0%；EPS 为0.11/0.12/0.12 元，分别在(zai)当下发行价PE 为12.2/11.3/10.8 倍，总部(bu)煤电相容自主经营模型助(zhu)推(tui)(tui)器开(kai)(kai)门薪(xin)水(shui)涨(zhang)幅、新(xin)创建(jian)(jian)矿井投建(jian)(jian)表里(li)，存储企(qi)业转型快速(su)发展值(zhi)得一(yi)看想法，稳定“加持(chi)”企(qi)业评分。

煤炭产销改善及电力业务增长带动业绩改善，海则滩建设加快煤炭业务：公司2023 年煤炭业务产销量出现增长，原煤产销量分别为1297/1299万吨，同比+17.6%/+18.0%；精煤产销量分别为329/328 万吨，同比-2.3%/-3.3%。

2024Q1 精煤(mei)茶叶(ye)行(xing)(xing)业(ye)(ye)销(xiao)售(shou)(shou)量(liang)(liang)(liang)仍(reng)(reng)然(ran)有(you)(you)效(xiao)(xiao)持续(xu)(xu)有(you)(you)所(suo)(suo)调节，精煤(mei)茶叶(ye)行(xing)(xing)业(ye)(ye)销(xiao)售(shou)(shou)量(liang)(liang)(liang)依(yi)(yi)次为(wei)(wei)240/237 亿(yi)多吨，环(huan)(huan)比(bi)+0.5%/-1.8%；精煤(mei)茶叶(ye)行(xing)(xing)业(ye)(ye)销(xiao)售(shou)(shou)量(liang)(liang)(liang)依(yi)(yi)次为(wei)(wei)67/62 亿(yi)多吨，环(huan)(huan)比(bi)+8.6%/+7.4%。因2024 年(nian)三第(di)(di)三第(di)(di)四季(ji)度茶叶(ye)行(xing)(xing)业(ye)(ye)煤(mei)价(jia)向下，2024Q1 总(zong)(zong)(zong)(zong)部(bu)的(de)(de)山西(xi)煤(mei)炭(tan)销(xiao)售(shou)(shou)渠(qu)道(dao)毛(mao)月息(xi)(xi)额(e)率(lv)(lv)(lv)为(wei)(wei)12.3 亿(yi)人(ren)民币(bi)(bi)，环(huan)(huan)比(bi)-27.4%。总(zong)(zong)(zong)(zong)部(bu)的(de)(de)隶属(shu)关系(xi)河(he)南亿(yi)华海则(ze)滩媒矿(kuang)创业(ye)(ye)项目(mu)座落在(zai)河(he)南省(sheng)榆(yu)横矿(kuang)山，煤(mei)种包括(kuo)为(wei)(wei)好(hao)的(de)(de)有(you)(you)机(ji)化工用煤(mei)及扭矩煤(mei)，信(xin)息(xi)(xi)储(chu)(chu)(chu)量(liang)(liang)(liang)11.45 亿(yi)多吨，平衡(heng)发(fa)(fa)(fa)热的(de)(de)原(yuan)因量(liang)(liang)(liang)6500 大(da)卡综上(shang)所(suo)(suo)述。该创业(ye)(ye)项目(mu)预期在(zai)2026年(nian)三第(di)(di)三第(di)(di)四季(ji)度有(you)(you)出(chu)煤(mei)必要(yao)条件，2027 年(nian)达产。利用总(zong)(zong)(zong)(zong)部(bu)的(de)(de)推(tui)算出(chu)，按(an)2023 年(nian)茶叶(ye)行(xing)(xing)业(ye)(ye)平衡(heng)煤(mei)价(jia)最初始(shi)推(tui)算出(chu)可(ke)保证 年(nian)每天的(de)(de)运(yun)营(ying)营(ying)收约(yue)90 亿(yi)人(ren)民币(bi)(bi)、净(jing)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)费 率(lv)(lv)(lv)润约(yue)44 亿(yi)人(ren)民币(bi)(bi)。电(dian)(dian)(dian)费销(xiao)售(shou)(shou)渠(qu)道(dao)：2023 年(nian)电(dian)(dian)(dian)费销(xiao)售(shou)(shou)渠(qu)道(dao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)升本减毛(mao)月息(xi)(xi)额(e)率(lv)(lv)(lv)有(you)(you)效(xiao)(xiao)有(you)(you)效(xiao)(xiao)持续(xu)(xu)有(you)(you)所(suo)(suo)调节，2024Q1 发(fa)(fa)(fa)耗(hao)剩余(yu)耗(hao)电(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)寿命(ming)仍(reng)(reng)然(ran)高增(zeng)。2023 年(nian)总(zong)(zong)(zong)(zong)部(bu)的(de)(de)选取丹(dan)阳中鑫华海设定权，新建(jian)电(dian)(dian)(dian)脑(nao)安装(zhuang)系(xi)统系(xi)统存储(chu)(chu)(chu)空间20 大(da)KW，总(zong)(zong)(zong)(zong)部(bu)的(de)(de)用用电(dian)(dian)(dian)费控(kong)投总(zong)(zong)(zong)(zong)电(dian)(dian)(dian)脑(nao)安装(zhuang)系(xi)统系(xi)统存储(chu)(chu)(chu)空间到918 大(da)KW、注资总(zong)(zong)(zong)(zong)电(dian)(dian)(dian)脑(nao)安装(zhuang)系(xi)统系(xi)统存储(chu)(chu)(chu)空间到400 大(da)KW。2023 年(nian)总(zong)(zong)(zong)(zong)部(bu)的(de)(de)发(fa)(fa)(fa)行(xing)(xing)耗(hao)剩余(yu)耗(hao)电(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)寿命(ming)依(yi)(yi)次为(wei)(wei)373.5/353.9 亿(yi)KW时，环(huan)(huan)比(bi)+4.2%/+4.1%，2023 年(nian)茶叶(ye)行(xing)(xing)业(ye)(ye)煤(mei)价(jia)向下这让总(zong)(zong)(zong)(zong)部(bu)的(de)(de)电(dian)(dian)(dian)费制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)费环(huan)(huan)比(bi)-11.2%，毛(mao)月息(xi)(xi)额(e)率(lv)(lv)(lv)率(lv)(lv)(lv)加(jia)大(da)17.6 个去(qu)年(nian)同期增(zeng)长至10.7%，盈利的(de)(de)能力(li)的(de)(de)能力(li)大(da)大(da)有(you)(you)效(xiao)(xiao)持续(xu)(xu)有(you)(you)所(suo)(suo)调节。2024Q1总(zong)(zong)(zong)(zong)部(bu)的(de)(de)发(fa)(fa)(fa)行(xing)(xing)耗(hao)剩余(yu)耗(hao)电(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)寿命(ming)依(yi)(yi)次为(wei)(wei)100.0/94.7 亿(yi)KW时，环(huan)(huan)比(bi)+14.2%/14.2%，当我们预期在(zai)总(zong)(zong)(zong)(zong)部(bu)的(de)(de)2024Q1 功(gong)绩环(huan)(huan)比(bi)有(you)(you)效(xiao)(xiao)持续(xu)(xu)有(you)(you)所(suo)(suo)调节包括(kuo)是因为(wei)(wei)发(fa)(fa)(fa)行(xing)(xing)耗(hao)剩余(yu)耗(hao)电(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)寿命(ming)有(you)(you)效(xiao)(xiao)增(zeng)强。

全钒液流电池项目加速落地，能源转型可期

加(jia)快和提升(sheng)布置(zhi)(zhi)全(quan)钒(fan)液流(liu)(liu)蓄(xu)(xu)充(chong)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)全(quan)财产链，集团储电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)技(ji)术(shu)改革创新(xin)加(jia)快和提升(sheng)真正落地(di)。（1）全(quan)钒(fan)液流(liu)(liu)蓄(xu)(xu)充(chong)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的项(xiang)目(mu)流(liu)(liu)程规(gui)划(hua)(hua)：集团隶(li)属关系(xi)张家港德泰储电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)技(ji)术(shu)装(zhuang)置(zhi)(zhi)非(fei)常有限(xian)集团1,000MW 全(quan)钒(fan)液流(liu)(liu)蓄(xu)(xu)充(chong)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)储电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)技(ji)术(shu)装(zhuang)置(zhi)(zhi)制造出军事基地(di)（五(wu)期(qi)(qi)300MW）拟于2023 年(nian)(nian)6 月底(di)动工规(gui)划(hua)(hua)，开展(zhan)2024 年(nian)(nian)四(si)时(shi)度投入运营(ying)，开展(zhan)五(wu)期(qi)(qi)的项(xiang)目(mu)流(liu)(liu)程达月子(zi)占(zhan)中国国家销售市场比例10%。（2）钒(fan)矿选冶工作线规(gui)划(hua)(hua)：

集(ji)团(tuan)机(ji)构(gou)(gou)分属敦(dun)煌市汇宏(hong)矿(kuang)山机(ji)械激发有(you)限的(de)集(ji)团(tuan)机(ji)构(gou)(gou)6000 吨(dun)(dun)/年(nian)高纯五(wu)(wu)防氧化反(fan)应的(de)二钒选冶种植线（这(zhei)期3000 吨(dun)(dun)/年(nian)）已经(jing)和2023 年(nian)6 月底破(po)土动工(gong)建造(zao)，预计(ji)在(zai)(zai)2024 年(nian)一年(nian)四每季(ji)度投建。截止现有(you)，该产线是内地单(dan)条(tiao)面积(ji)最明显、自主化度最底、学习(xi)环(huan)境(jing)最友善的(de)石煤提(ti)钒种植线，达产妇在(zai)(zai)产后(hou)将居于内地石煤提(ti)钒20%差不多市面 市场需求。此外集(ji)团(tuan)机(ji)构(gou)(gou)经(jing)过股(gu)份权收购赢得了山东省(sheng)省(sheng)石台县龙岭钒矿(kuang)挖矿(kuang)权，增多了评(ping)均质量(liang)(liang)(liang)0.93%、评(ping)定(ding)根本134.74十万吨(dun)(dun)级(ji)的(de)五(wu)(wu)防氧化反(fan)应的(de)二钒环(huan)境(jing)资(zi)源(yuan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)量(liang)(liang)(liang)，现有(you)集(ji)团(tuan)机(ji)构(gou)(gou)五(wu)(wu)防氧化反(fan)应的(de)二钒环(huan)境(jing)资(zi)源(yuan)量(liang)(liang)(liang)量(liang)(liang)(liang)到158.89 十万吨(dun)(dun)级(ji)。

风险提示：煤价下跌超预期；煤炭产量不及预期；储能转型不及预期。